Beef prices in the United States have soared to record highs, creating both economic strain and political tension. Donald Trump, who once claimed inflation was “dead,” now faces pressure as beef costs threaten his vow to lower grocery prices. This week, he took to social media to urge ranchers to drop their cattle prices. But his appeal — and the proposals coming from his administration — have sparked outrage among ranchers who fear the plans could damage their livelihoods while offering little relief to consumers.
America’s cattle industry in decline
The number of cattle ranchers in the US has been shrinking for more than four decades. Domestic beef supply has steadily fallen while demand remains strong. The country’s cattle inventory is now at its lowest level in nearly 75 years. Since 2017, the United States has lost more than 150,000 cattle ranches — a 17% drop, according to data from the Agriculture Department.
Ranchers point to decades of consolidation in the meat industry as a major reason for their struggles. Rising costs for fertiliser, feed, and equipment have further strained operations. Years of drought have also forced many to reduce or sell off their herds.
Illinois rancher Christian Lovell said parts of his land that were once lush and green have dried up. “You put all these together and you have a recipe for a really broken market,” said Lovell, who works with the advocacy group Farm Action.
Beef inflation hits American dinner tables
Retail beef prices have surged far beyond overall food inflation. Ground beef prices rose 12.9% in the year to September, while beef steaks jumped 16.6%, according to federal data. A pound of ground chuck now costs $6.33, compared with $5.58 last year. Overall food inflation stands at just 3.1%.
“The cattle herd has been shrinking for several years, yet Americans still want that beef,” said Brenda Boetel, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, River Falls.
Derrell Peel, a professor at Oklahoma State University, said prices will stay high for years. He expects them to remain elevated until at least the end of the decade because rebuilding herds takes time. Peel added that Trump’s administration has few real options to bring prices down quickly.
Trump’s beef import plan fuels rancher backlash
The Agriculture Department recently unveiled a plan to boost domestic beef production by opening more grazing land and supporting small meat processors. The announcement came after Trump proposed importing more beef from Argentina, which could quadruple current purchases.
The idea provoked fierce resistance. Eight House Republicans warned the White House that the proposal could hurt American ranchers. Even the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, which usually supports Trump, said the plan “creates chaos during a critical time for producers while doing nothing to lower grocery prices.”
Trump defended himself, pointing to tariffs he imposed on Brazilian beef. “They have to get their prices down,” he wrote online. “The consumer is a big factor in my thinking.” But his response failed to ease ranchers’ anger.
Justin Tupper, president of the US Cattlemen’s Association, said the plan would only help the four biggest meat-processing corporations. “I don’t see that lowering prices here at all,” he said.
Power of meat giants under fresh scrutiny
Experts argue that true reform must confront the power of a few meat-processing companies that dominate the industry. Four corporations — Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — control more than 80% of the US beef slaughtering and packing market.
“These are consolidated markets gouging ranchers and gouging consumers,” said Austin Frerick, an agricultural and antitrust expert at Yale University.
The companies face several lawsuits, including one from McDonald’s accusing them of inflating beef prices through collusion. Earlier this year, Trump repealed a Biden-era order that had aimed to limit corporate consolidation in food production. Even so, his administration has begun investigating competition practices within agriculture.
Rebuilding America’s herds may take decades
In Kansas, rancher Mike Callicrate has managed to stay in business by cutting out the middlemen and selling directly to consumers. But he said most ranchers cannot afford to take that route. Many have already left the industry and see no reason to return.
“We’re not going to rebuild this cow herd — not until we address market concentration,” Callicrate said. He supports plans to open more grazing land but warned, “Without a fair market, you’re a fool to get into the cattle business.”
Bill Bullard, head of the rancher trade group R-CALF USA, shut down his 300-cow operation in South Dakota back in 1985 as meat processing consolidated. He said ranchers only began earning decent prices again recently because supplies have fallen so low that processors must pay more.
Still, Bullard said ranchers don’t trust the current system. Heavy dependence on imports and the market dominance of meat packers make them wary of expanding. “He’s focused on the symptoms, not the problems,” Bullard said about Trump’s approach.
For now, beef remains one of America’s most expensive grocery staples — and one of the toughest political challenges Trump has yet to solve.
