Precious metals have dominated markets this year, fueled by rising geopolitical risk, expectations of looser monetary policy and a fragile global economic outlook. Gold prices soared to record levels in 2025, reaching as high as $4,481 (€3,797) per troy ounce — an increase of roughly 55–70% year on year, marking one of the strongest annual rallies in decades. Silver, often seen as the “lesser” metal, outpaced gold in percentage gains, climbing 130–140% and hitting record levels near $69 (€58) per ounce by late 2025.
Once sidelined in favor of modern stores of value like currencies, bonds and real estate, precious metals made a strong comeback amid a year defined by tariff tit-for-tat, central banks reducing their dependence on the US dollar, and persistent political tensions. This week, gold climbed as much as 2.4% and silver rose 3.4% after tensions flared between the US and Venezuela, following reports that the US Navy attempted to seize a third oil tanker linked to the South American country.
Although gold prices do not directly track events in Venezuela, the standoff signals broader risks to markets. Political and security crises like this alert investors to overlapping threats, including energy supply disruptions, sanctions escalation and great-power friction. Gold and silver appeal in these moments because they are not dominated by any single government, do not rely on corporate earnings, carry no default risk and are difficult to sanction or freeze.
January–March: Early safe-haven demand amid tariffs
Gold started 2025 at elevated levels, reflecting uncertainty about inflation, interest rates and spillovers from Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In March, gold surged above $3,000 (€2,544) per ounce for the first time as concerns grew over new US tariffs under President Donald Trump, particularly on steel and aluminium, with the potential for broader trade measures. Markets interpreted this as a sign of an escalating trade war and higher inflation risk, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe haven. Silver initially reacted more cautiously.
April–June: Middle East tensions drive further gains
On 2 April, Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and spot gold quickly climbed toward record highs above $3,100 (€2,628) per troy ounce as traders anticipated an escalating trade conflict. Gold continued rising steadily through spring and early summer, hitting $3,354 (€2,842) per troy ounce amid broader geopolitical stress, including renewed tensions between Iran and Israel. In late June, the US Air Force and Navy attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities as part of the Iran–Israel conflict, further boosting safe-haven demand.
July–September: Fed standoff and tariffs reinforce the rally
A public clash between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates strengthened gold’s mid-year rally. Trump repeatedly criticized Powell for keeping rates high and pushed for cuts that Powell refused, fueling speculation about potential changes in Fed leadership. Spot gold climbed above $3,400 (€2,883) through the summer, buoyed by monetary policy uncertainty and persistent global trade risks. On 11 July, Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff package, which largely came into effect on 1 August, reinforcing central banks’ trend of increasing gold reserves for diversification. Silver kept pace, hitting $38.46 per ounce in mid-July.
October–November: Gold tops $4,000 amid trade, policy, and shutdown fears
Gold surpassed $4,000 (€3,392) in early October as safe-haven demand surged amid expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainty. By 13 October, gold reached $4,133 (€3,504) amid US–China trade tensions. Later in the month, tentative progress in trade talks briefly pushed prices below $4,000, but the upward trend persisted. Investors also monitored the risk of a US government shutdown and ongoing criticism of the Fed’s policy from the Trump administration. By late November, gold was set for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, trading around $4,210 (€3,567) on 28 November, while silver hit a new record near $56.78 (€48.12) per ounce.
December: Record highs as Venezuela tensions flare
Late December 2025 marked the most dramatic surge. Gold climbed above $4,490 per troy ounce and silver neared $70 per ounce as investors sought safe havens following reports of US military action and attempts to seize Venezuela-linked oil tankers. Markets also factored in expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2026, which could reduce real yields and continue supporting bullion, compounded by a weakening US dollar. The result was a historic year for precious metals, with both gold and silver delivering extraordinary gains and cementing their status as safe-haven assets in turbulent times.
