Reviving a 2020 Idea
President Emmanuel Macron is set to deliver a major speech on Monday outlining how France could expand its nuclear deterrent to support European partners. The address, from the Île Longue peninsula — home to France’s four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines — marks the first time Macron has spoken publicly on the subject since 2020. Back then, his offer to involve other European countries in exercises largely went unnoticed, but recent geopolitical developments have given the idea new momentum. Macron is expected to emphasize that France’s initiative would complement, not compete with, the protection provided by the United States.
Rising European Interest
European capitals are now paying closer attention to nuclear security as the geopolitical landscape shifts. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe’s defence vulnerabilities, while the return of to power has caused uncertainty about Washington’s long-term commitment to NATO. Episodes such as Trump threatening military action against Denmark over Greenland have further heightened concerns. At the same time, the US plans to pivot some forces to the Indo-Pacific, leaving questions about its continued presence in Europe.
Macron has confirmed discussions with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other EU leaders to explore how French nuclear doctrine could be shared more broadly. French officials stress that this interest does not signal competition with NATO but responds to growing concerns over Russia’s hypersonic missile program, China’s arsenal expansion, and Iran’s uncertain nuclear trajectory.
Maintaining “Strict Sufficiency”
France’s nuclear policy follows the principle of “strict sufficiency,” maintaining only the number of warheads needed to inflict unacceptable damage. Its roughly 300 warheads are far fewer than the thousands held by the US and Russia. French sources emphasize that Paris is not pursuing an arms race but ensuring credible deterrence.
Meanwhile, France and the UK have strengthened cooperation through the Northwood Declaration, establishing a Nuclear Steering Group to coordinate exercises and political direction. Macron’s upcoming speech is expected to clarify France’s role in Europe’s nuclear landscape, balancing strategic reassurance with responsible, limited proliferation.
