Economic Clash Tops the List of Global Threats
Rising tensions between major powers, expressed through tariffs, sanctions, and other economic tools, have been named the biggest threat to global stability for 2026, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) latest Global Risks Report. The report, compiled from the insights of over 1,300 leaders in business, government, academia, and civil society, ranks geoeconomic confrontation above misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and armed conflict.
Half of the respondents expect a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up from 36% last year. Only 9% foresee stability, and just 1% predict calm. Looking further ahead, most experts anticipate prolonged global instability over the coming decade. Saadia Zahidi, WEF Managing Director, said the report “offers an early warning system” while stressing that “none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”
Rising Geopolitical and Economic Pressures
Geoeconomic confrontation, seen as a direct threat to supply chains and economic stability, tops both the likelihood and severity charts for the near term, with 18% of experts naming it the most likely trigger for a global crisis this year. State-based armed conflict ranks second for 2026 but drops to fifth in the two-year outlook.
The report points to last year’s U.S. trade policies, including widespread tariffs, as examples of how geoeconomic tensions can disrupt global commerce and strain businesses and consumers alike. Furthermore, 68% of respondents anticipate a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade, highlighting growing geopolitical fragmentation. Economic risks such as downturns, inflation, rising debt, and potential asset bubbles are also climbing the rankings, raising concerns about renewed market volatility.
Technology, Society, and Climate in Focus
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation rank as the second-largest short-term threat, with cyber insecurity in sixth place. Artificial intelligence is increasingly a concern, climbing from 30th to fifth in the long-term risk outlook due to potential impacts on jobs, security, and social stability. Societal polarisation and inequality remain major challenges, with inequality noted as the most interconnected risk for the second year running.
Environmental risks, while less urgent in the short-term outlook, dominate the long-term horizon. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are ranked the most severe threats over the next decade, with 75% of respondents expecting a turbulent environmental future. Zahidi emphasized that cooperation will be key to managing these risks, stating, “The challenges highlighted in this report — spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks — underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
